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money [2019/04/15 14:53]
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money [2019/05/27 21:44] (current)
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     * If you're "​informed"​ / have a predictable model of the market ala ERN, does having a static glide path even matter? Just re-evaluate! ​     * If you're "​informed"​ / have a predictable model of the market ala ERN, does having a static glide path even matter? Just re-evaluate! ​
     * Also, why is Year 0-15 more important than Year 15+? Try with simple example.     * Also, why is Year 0-15 more important than Year 15+? Try with simple example.
-  * 0% stock ("100% chance of meeting your goal") vs 100% stock (80% chance of exceeding your goal). Jeffrey Eischen vs. ERN (has a nice article on saving for a mortgage down payment that I remember)+  * 0% stock ("100% chance of meeting your goal") vs 100% stock (80% chance of exceeding your goal, 50% chance of **not**). Jeffrey Eischen vs. ERN (has a nice article on saving for a mortgage down payment that I remember)
   * Unimportant:​ Are the above on a CFP exam, particularly sequence of return risk?    * Unimportant:​ Are the above on a CFP exam, particularly sequence of return risk? 
   * I hope I'm able to bring something to our conversation together! (I'm not overly boring / uninteresting to him)   * I hope I'm able to bring something to our conversation together! (I'm not overly boring / uninteresting to him)
   * Read some of the recent bullets ​   * Read some of the recent bullets ​
   * Why bad to sell shares for cash flow? Why tilt your portfolio towards dividends?   * Why bad to sell shares for cash flow? Why tilt your portfolio towards dividends?
 +
 +===== Jeffrey Eischen =====
 +==== Meeting 3 ====
 +
 +== My "​Goals"​ ==
 +Permanent goals:
 +  * Optimize the marginal pleasure and money curve. Mr. Money Mustache'​s example of 2 parents and 1 child for <$25K (not including mortgage/​rent) seems reasonable. I'm basically there already with a <$15K yearly spend. Have to work on the happy part though :) 
 +  * With the leftover money, invest it wisely into my own financial independence and good causes. ​
 +  * Not so much optimize for happiness, but optimize for sustainable ... impact? Man... what is The Good. 
 +  ​
 +
 +Medium-term (5 year) goals:
 +  * Become settled in who the God of the Universe is and what Good is.
 +  * With that foundation set, call up Julia or someone similar and probably get married. Maybe invest in a house, maybe not. Probably dedicate 20 years of my life to raising children. ​
 +  * Get a better idea of what to do with my life once in a position of financial independence. ​
 +    * Not "​shrivel up and die"
 +    * Not be stuck in an apartment/​house alone.
 +    * It might be even best to stay working at technology companies for a time. Some technology can have impact.
 +
 +
 +Questions:
 +  * I like the idea of asset allocation for better returns due to independent volatility. However, if there'​s no volatility, it can be better to just go with cap-weighted...
 +  * I still emotionally like market timing the coming recession and upturn, despite some nice videos and articles to the contrary. When to "get back in" is a toughie...I would like convincing out of my emotions if justified...
 +  * What is Jeffrey'​s budget for his family? What does he optimize for?
 +  * What are my blind spots?
 +
 +=== Response ===
 +You need seasoning. You need to grind through something for a while. Working at Intel and bringing in $100K per year while single is too easy. Why?
 +  * //Why should I add stress to my life?// Because it allows you to know when things do get bad, you can grind through it again and make it through / outlast people.
 +    * Gave example of client that ground through 2009 by working two jobs, one a normal shop daytime job and another doing packages for UPS from midnight to 8am.
 +
 +32:00 You need to have goals because you can only get so far by optimizing and subtracting unneeded costs. **So what are you going to do with all of this money that you've saved?**
 +  * //But I do have goals, kind of!//
 +  * //I hesitate to put a goal out there because it might turn out to be foolish/​unreachable in the end. For example, **why** do MLSP things? No good reason, other than high school self liked it. //
 +    * //​Perhaps...but you didn't know that ahead of time//
 +
 +39:30 Jeffrey likes FI and being frugal and investing wisely, but if you don't have a plan you'll be twitching in a coffee shop somewhere for lack of human contact! ​
 +  * He enjoys being a financial advisor because he can change people'​s lives on a daily basis. He can help people out of really difficult situations and genuinely help them. Not getting paid the money.
 +
 +
 +Why not an active management approach? You're only picking an index fund because there are no fees?
 +  * //No, I believe am happy to pay for consistent out-performance after fees. I am trying to find out how to do that reliably. Even FRORX underperforms the benchmark they stated for themselves! (before taxes, I think)//
 +
 +
 +Think **income**, not growth.
 +  * //But growth to a retiree can be the same as income, just withdraw periodically!//​
 +
 +52:30-ish, "Get rid of optimize, optimize your happiness, leveraged, sustainable,​ marginal pleasure and money curve "
 +  * How can I create the most happiness for someone else? //One way of doing happiness//
 +  * Having money doesn'​t help. So many of Jeff's friends and acquaintances who make millions per year have committed suicide. //Why?// Because they didn't find happiness in what they did.
 +  * Striving to find happiness is a cautionary tale. Find value instead in what you produce. //???!!//
 +  * How do I create what I need to to get the life **I** want to live? Nolan, you're trying to math equation a life out, and it doesn'​t work that way. //What does he mean? I'm guessing not financial//
 +
 +//​Leveraging up and "​buying"​ a home is not what I want to do...//
 +  * They go down just like the stock market!
 +
 +//Why is a small selling out of a position for means of income bad? Why are dividends so much better than stock buybacks / capital gains?//
 +
 +The dollars you invest today need to be more conservative than the later ones because you're going to get scared and sell out.
 +  * //Maybe true 18 months ago, but not so much anymore. But still trying to time the market...//
 +  * //Also going into stocks, for most people, cuts off them years to FI.//
 +
 +
  
 ===== New stuff to read ===== ===== New stuff to read =====
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   * Getting Started in Options   * Getting Started in Options
   * Jim Cramer'​s Real Money   * Jim Cramer'​s Real Money
 +
 +
 +===== Momentum =====
 +http://​www.philosophicaleconomics.com/​2016/​01/​movingaverage/,​ http://​www.philosophicaleconomics.com/​2016/​01/​gtt/,​ and https://​earlyretirementnow.com/​2018/​04/​25/​market-timing-and-risk-management-part-2-momentum/​.
 +
 +Aaaand... https://​www.philosophicaleconomics.com/​2016/​02/​uetrend/​
  
 ===== UK Investing Video ===== ===== UK Investing Video =====
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 ===== M1 Finance ===== ===== M1 Finance =====
 +Lots more info here on how M1 makes money. https://​www.m1finance.com/​blog/​how-m1-makes-money/​
 +
 +Thankfully the $.02 minimum SEC fees are only levied on **sales** not on purchases. Great!!
 +
 ==== Robinhood ==== ==== Robinhood ====
 Gets paybacks for trading for order flow from market makers like Citadel. They don't want to be overrun by a big institution (take on a huge sale 100 shares at a time and can't sell it at the price they bought it). https://​www.bloombergview.com/​articles/​2016-02-25/​-flash-boys-exchange-isn-t-about-the-little-guy Gets paybacks for trading for order flow from market makers like Citadel. They don't want to be overrun by a big institution (take on a huge sale 100 shares at a time and can't sell it at the price they bought it). https://​www.bloombergview.com/​articles/​2016-02-25/​-flash-boys-exchange-isn-t-about-the-little-guy
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 Can search individual bonds with Fidelity fixed income! (Vanguard has a lot less bonds for some reason) Can search individual bonds with Fidelity fixed income! (Vanguard has a lot less bonds for some reason)
 ==== Municipal ==== ==== Municipal ====
-Can +{{:​pasted:​20190525-230029.png}}
 === Individual === === Individual ===
 Typical of Oregon bonds sold, although some are lower coupon. Typical of Oregon bonds sold, although some are lower coupon.
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   *    * 
 ===== Index Fund ===== ===== Index Fund =====
 +=== Philosophical Economics ===
 +Great introduction into why index funds match the average actively invested dollar. TODO write summary for review and understanding.
 +
 +
 For a total market fund (u.s. funds I guess, might want to branch out into international too) It automatically beats 50% of the market because only <​actively managed> mutual funds are generally in the market and buying / selling and changing the stock price. ​ For a total market fund (u.s. funds I guess, might want to branch out into international too) It automatically beats 50% of the market because only <​actively managed> mutual funds are generally in the market and buying / selling and changing the stock price. ​
  
money.1555365225.txt.gz · Last modified: 2019/04/15 14:53 by admin