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money [2019/05/27 21:44]
admin
money [2019/09/05 21:41] (current)
admin [Greater Fool]
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 The dollars you invest today need to be more conservative than the later ones because you're going to get scared and sell out. The dollars you invest today need to be more conservative than the later ones because you're going to get scared and sell out.
   * //Maybe true 18 months ago, but not so much anymore. But still trying to time the market...//   * //Maybe true 18 months ago, but not so much anymore. But still trying to time the market...//
-  * //Also going into stocks, for most people, cuts off them years to FI.//+  * //Also going into stocks, for most people, cuts them off years to FI.//
  
 +===== Coin Flip Betting =====
 +As seen in Financial Risk Management for Dummies, by Aaron Brown of AQR Capital management.
  
 +{{:​pasted:​20190902-110347.png?​400}}
 +{{:​pasted:​20190902-110418.png?​400}}
 +{{:​pasted:​20190902-110453.png?​400}}
 +{{:​pasted:​20190902-110530.png?​400}}
  
 +<​blockquote>​Hello Aaron,
 +
 +I am enjoying your book so far! I have plenty more to read...
 +
 +However, after thinking about the example in Chapter 1 [1] (link to Google Books), I think your derivation of the expected return is incorrect. Let's run the idealized scenario of N = 250, 125 heads and 125 tails. We would expect the expected value to reflect this idealized scenario accurately, correct?
 +
 +With the 20% / -18% return scenario, the expected value would be:
 +1.20^(125)*(1-0.18)^(125) = 0.984^125 = $.133. As expected from the trials. ​
 +
 +With another scenario, a static dollar $.20 / $-.18 return, where the pot doesn'​t change:
 +$.20*125 - $.18*125 + 1 = $3.50 
 +
 +But this isn't the same as the expected value ....? 1.01^250 = $12.03!
 +
 +I'm confused now...
 +
 +
 +[1] https://​books.google.com/​books?​id=cWazCgAAQBAJ&​lpg=PR1&​dq=financial%20risk%20management%20for%20dummies&​pg=PA16#​v=onepage&​q&​f=false ​ </​blockquote>​
 +
 +===== Kevin O'​Leary =====
 +Really believes in a pre-nup big time and not getting married to avoid getting divorced.
 +
 + 
 +===== The most important thing =====
 +Good book also by Howard Marks, although a little too high level for me.
 +
 +Their goal isn't to outrun the winners, just matching the index is fine. However, they want to avoid all the downside recession risk that comes with the index. Sounds good to me.
 +
 +Determining whether an investor is skilled (alpha) is not so easily determined after the fact! There were many other possible outcomes that could have but didn't happen. Did they just leverage up and take on more volatility/​risk (beta)?
 +
 +Also, investors that are bullish will look good in bullish markets, and look really bad in down markets. Same for vice versa. Just because someone calls the top doesn'​t mean they didn't have many false alarms before then.
 +
 +==== Risk ====
 +Great explanation of risk by Howard Marks in "The Most Important Thing"​. Probably a good writeup here: {{ ::​2014-09-03-risk-revisited.pdf |}}
 +  * There wouldn'​t be higher return without corresponding riskiness! {{:​pasted:​20190719-151224.png}}
 +  * In the pursuit of being able to analyze something, academics have given into volatility as the only needed measure of risk. There are many more that seem more important. Things aren't a gaussian...
 +
 +
 +===== Intel =====
 +Rule of 75. https://​www.cordantwealth.com/​retiring-from-intel-calculating-years-of-service-determining-retirement-eligibility-and-the-benefits-of-being-an-intel-retiree-part-1/​
 +  * You're not an official retiree unless you meet certain requirements.
 +  * Other than accelerating RSU stuff and providing some health plan benefits, it doesn'​t seem to be worth working 20+ years for Intel for!
 +===== Leverage =====
 +Keith Tax Guy: NO! https://​wealthyaccountant.com/​2017/​10/​25/​when-maximizing-gains-are-a-stupid-idea/​
 +  * Your account is always collecting interest, regardless of market motion.
 +  * Lots of landlords go bankrupt! ​
 +  * It feels good to be debt-free :-)
 +<​blockquote>​I always thought it was about how much I was worth. No more. I think you are a helluva lot richer without debt than with a massive net worth. I feel better about myself financially now than ever before. I always knew I owed somebody. Now that is gone and I can yell:
 +
 +“I’M DEBT FREE!!!”</​blockquote>​
 +    * Also future stock returns can be uncertain whereas debt is not. You can spend a lot of unconscious energy worrying about debt.
 +    * Also his wife loved it a lot too. More than being a 8-figure person.
 +    * https://​wealthyaccountant.com/​2018/​09/​24/​paying-off-the-mortgage-vs-investing-the-difference/​
 +==== Stocks ====
 +=== Upside ===
 +  * Margin interest is still individually deductible. However, probably can't meet standard deduction. If you have lots of deduction but not a lot of income, you can convert your qualified dividends to be ordinary income to get a 0% tax rate. Interesting.
 +
 +=== Downside ===
 +=== Implementation ===
 +  * HELOC will let you do it.
 +==== Real Estate ====
 +{{:​everyday:​money:​pasted:​20190702-160809.png?​500}}
 +=== Upsides? ===
 +  * Don't have margin calls on the money
 +**Multiply your returns!**
 +  * Enthusiastically expounded in this "​book"​. {{ ::​7_money_myths_free_download.pdf |}}. Was recommended from an amazon reviewer for another book, but is quite ... not the whole picture.
 +
 +====Downsides ===
 +
 +  * Looks great, but you have opening and closing costs on the home.
 +  * 
 +  * https://​www.greaterfool.ca/​2019/​07/​02/​leverage-3/​
 +
 +<​blockquote>​Besides,​ financial portfolios can pay you a positive monthly cash flow.  Houses cost money to keep. ...
 +
 +Finally, risk. Not only does leverage wildly exaggerate risk in any falling market, but the danger of putting all your net worth in one bucket these days is extreme. Real estate’s a sitting duck for more government taxation as it becomes a symbol of wealth (look at BC). Housing also turns illiquid when the market sours. Financial assets, in contrast, can be sold in seconds. The last thing you want going into retirement is a paid-off home that can’t be turned into cash flow to live on. So a one-asset plan’s a total crap shoot on what conditions may be when that holding must be punted.</​blockquote>​
 ===== New stuff to read ===== ===== New stuff to read =====
   * How investors should deal with the overwhelming problem of understnaindg the world economy. Contrarian edge   * How investors should deal with the overwhelming problem of understnaindg the world economy. Contrarian edge
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 +===== How "​helpers"​ make money =====
 +Great article by patio11, kalzemeus software. https://​www.kalzumeus.com/​2019/​6/​26/​how-brokerages-make-money/​
 +  * Most money is made by net interest margin. Cash with minimal interest rate given, but taking in Fed overnight rate.
 +  * Payment for order flow is actually price improvement. Lending out shares, similar thing.
 +  * Link to great podcast interview with kitces.
 ===== Momentum ===== ===== Momentum =====
 http://​www.philosophicaleconomics.com/​2016/​01/​movingaverage/,​ http://​www.philosophicaleconomics.com/​2016/​01/​gtt/,​ and https://​earlyretirementnow.com/​2018/​04/​25/​market-timing-and-risk-management-part-2-momentum/​. http://​www.philosophicaleconomics.com/​2016/​01/​movingaverage/,​ http://​www.philosophicaleconomics.com/​2016/​01/​gtt/,​ and https://​earlyretirementnow.com/​2018/​04/​25/​market-timing-and-risk-management-part-2-momentum/​.
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 Contrarian contrarian (pro smart beta) view: https://​www.greaterfool.ca/​2019/​04/​13/​divys/​ Contrarian contrarian (pro smart beta) view: https://​www.greaterfool.ca/​2019/​04/​13/​divys/​
-  * Pro dividend growth stocks, "​dividend aristocrats"​. The executives would be stupid to over-increase their dividend and risk getting off the list, offend picky ppl.+  * Pro dividend growth stocks, "​dividend aristocrats"​. The executives would be stupid to over-increase their dividend and risk getting off the list, offend picky ppl. But...hasn'​t outperformed this decade either. But maybe generally it does? [[https://​www.portfoliovisualizer.com/​backtest-portfolio?​s=y&​timePeriod=4&​startYear=1985&​firstMonth=1&​endYear=2019&​lastMonth=12&​calendarAligned=true&​initialAmount=10000&​annualOperation=0&​annualAdjustment=0&​inflationAdjusted=true&​annualPercentage=0.0&​frequency=4&​rebalanceType=1&​absoluteDeviation=5.0&​relativeDeviation=25.0&​showYield=false&​reinvestDividends=true&​benchmark=VFINX&​symbol1=SDY&​allocation1_1=100&​symbol2=VDAIX&​allocation2_2=100&​symbol3=BRK.B&​allocation3_3=100&​total1=100&​total2=100&​total3=100|Portfolio Visualizer]] 
 +    * But Buffett doesn'​t believe in dividends ;-) 
 +    * 
 ===== Historical Stock Price Data ===== ===== Historical Stock Price Data =====
 https://​www.kaggle.com/​ehallmar/​daily-historical-stock-prices-1970-2018 https://​www.kaggle.com/​ehallmar/​daily-historical-stock-prices-1970-2018
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   * "Put your money in the market"​ https://​www.greaterfool.ca/​2018/​12/​21/​almost-human-3/​   * "Put your money in the market"​ https://​www.greaterfool.ca/​2018/​12/​21/​almost-human-3/​
   * "​Don'​t put it in housing!"​ https://​www.greaterfool.ca/​2018/​12/​20/​coming-clean-2/​   * "​Don'​t put it in housing!"​ https://​www.greaterfool.ca/​2018/​12/​20/​coming-clean-2/​
 +  * Sep. 2019: Probably rates won't drop further, maybe stock market will go higher too! https://​www.greaterfool.ca/​2019/​09/​05/​the-blip-2/​
  
  
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 Reading through his latest book, which is a gripping account of the 2008 recession as well as the 1930s recession. I think he'll talk about the upcoming one too. Reading through his latest book, which is a gripping account of the 2008 recession as well as the 1930s recession. I think he'll talk about the upcoming one too.
  
 +{{ ::​principles_for_navigating_big_debt_crises_by_ray_dalio.pdf |}}
 === 2008 recession === === 2008 recession ===
 Partly caused by housing crisis, but a lot caused by the bets on those that were made easy by options? $500 trillion or something. Hmm...might need to re-read. Partly caused by housing crisis, but a lot caused by the bets on those that were made easy by options? $500 trillion or something. Hmm...might need to re-read.
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   * Can get data from the backtesting website. https://​www.portfoliovisualizer.com/​backtest-portfolio   * Can get data from the backtesting website. https://​www.portfoliovisualizer.com/​backtest-portfolio
 ===== Profiting in a <​known>​ bear market ===== ===== Profiting in a <​known>​ bear market =====
 +Easy option is to buy bonds. But...you can **bet** that the market will go down, which is more profitable.
 +  * Probably want to buy "​individual"​ treasury bonds? As 10-year treasuries coming out in 2009 aren't as profitable as 2006. A 10-year treasury mutual fund will continue to buy 10 year treasuries, even when it doesn'​t make sense anymore.
 +
 +
 There are mutual funds that just short the market. And make money when the S&P 500 goes down! Not sure who takes the other side of those trades, but ... yeah. Weird. There are mutual funds that just short the market. And make money when the S&P 500 goes down! Not sure who takes the other side of those trades, but ... yeah. Weird.
  
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 ===== Options Trading ===== ===== Options Trading =====
 +==== Wealthy Accountant ====
 +<​blockquote>​The naked puts are fun (and profitable). If the stock doesn’t decline to my buying point I keep the premium and if it does I get to own a piece of a business I wanted to own.</​blockquote>​
 +  * I //think// the above is an appropriate summary of his article: https://​wealthyaccountant.com/​2017/​11/​20/​buying-stock-at-a-discount/​. Need to re-read.
 +  * But also see his later article:
 +<​blockquote>​Sometimes—not often, but sometimes—I used options to either buy a stock by selling puts. Less often I used covered calls to generate additional income. These strategies are a double edged sword. A naked put might bring in additional revenue, but if the stock climbs higher your resources would have been better utilized owning the stock rather than getting cute in an attempt to pull an extra thousand or so in option premiums. Covered calls had the opposite problem. Sometimes a stock runs too far, too fast. But trying to figure out a top is nothing short of insanity. Covered calls can work, but you risk the stock climbing over the strike price.</​blockquote>​
 +
 +
 +
 Dad liked OptionsAlpha for explanations. ​ Dad liked OptionsAlpha for explanations. ​
   * He seemed to this that "​delta"​ is an accurate computation of probability that the option will pay out? //​Isn'​t 70% likelihood beating the house?//   * He seemed to this that "​delta"​ is an accurate computation of probability that the option will pay out? //​Isn'​t 70% likelihood beating the house?//
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 ===== Market Timing ===== ===== Market Timing =====
 +{{:​pasted:​20190623-204955.png?​500}}
 +
 +  * Yields are starting to tank for treasuries. Stock market is at an all time high. 10-2 yield curve hasn't inverted yet, but treasuries are tanking earlier than normal. But no Fed interest rate cuts yet or new unemployment. Kinda want to wait until dividend is paid out and then convert ... 80% to long term treasuries.
 +    * FRED chart of treasury .. yields? ​
 +    * [[https://​fred.stlouisfed.org/​graph/?​g=ofyT|{{:​pasted:​20190623-223601.png?​500}}]]
 +  * Greater Fool has a good [[https://​www.greaterfool.ca/​2019/​06/​22/​whos-right/​|article]]. Bond direction is disagreeing with stock direction. Feels that it's overblown, stocks will not crash. But not sure what will happen either. ​
 +  * Karsten has a good article in April, but he's talking about recession. Which, while it's the ultimate drawdown, isn't trying to capture the top either. https://​earlyretirementnow.com/​2019/​04/​03/​yield-curve-inversion-why-i-am-not-worried-yet/​
 +  * The "​pop"​ for treasuries doesn'​t occur until deep in recession, so not much penalty kinda for waiting.
 +  * 
 +
 +==== What to go into ====
 +^ Recession ^ Treasury maturities returns ^
 +| 74-76 | No difference |
 +| 80-83 | No difference |
 +| 90-92 | No difference |
 +| 00-02 | No difference |
 +| 08-10 | Some difference. Longer terms had nice price appreciation "​pop"​. \\ [[https://​www.portfoliovisualizer.com/​backtest-asset-class-allocation?​s=y&​mode=1&​timePeriod=2&​startYear=2007&​firstMonth=5&​endYear=2010&​lastMonth=12&​calendarAligned=true&​initialAmount=10000&​annualOperation=0&​annualAdjustment=0&​inflationAdjusted=true&​annualPercentage=0.0&​frequency=4&​rebalanceType=1&​absoluteDeviation=5.0&​relativeDeviation=25.0&​benchmark=-1&​benchmarkSymbol=FRORX&​sameFees=true&​asset1=InterTaxExempt&​allocation1_1=100&​asset2=IntermediateTreasury&​asset3=TreasuryNotes&​allocation3_2=100&​asset4=LongTreasury&​allocation4_3=100&​total1=100&​total2=100&​total3=100|{{:​pasted:​20190623-210203.png?​400}}]]|
 +  * Only in 2008 did long term treasuries pop. So...maybe go with tax-exempt municipal? But hard to sell. Treasury interest is state tax **exempt**.
 +
 +
 TOp 10 leading indicators: https://​en.wikipedia.org/​wiki/​Economic_indicator TOp 10 leading indicators: https://​en.wikipedia.org/​wiki/​Economic_indicator
  
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   *    * 
 ===== Index Fund ===== ===== Index Fund =====
 +=== Which Company? ===
 +Fidelity mutual funds don't have the luxury of eliminating their capital gains. But their ETFs (or rather iShares it seems) do. So either keep untaxed funds in Fidelity or move to ETF/​Vanguard. https://​www.financial-planning.com/​opinion/​vanguard-vs-fidelitys-zero-funds-on-fees-expense-ratios-and-tax-efficiency
 +
 === Philosophical Economics === === Philosophical Economics ===
 Great introduction into why index funds match the average actively invested dollar. TODO write summary for review and understanding. Great introduction into why index funds match the average actively invested dollar. TODO write summary for review and understanding.
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     * "This has a side effect of completely killing research-driven investing. What's the point of doing research to determine which stocks are good or bad, when their prices will be driven by the blind demand (or supply) based on cash flows of the passive investors?"​     * "This has a side effect of completely killing research-driven investing. What's the point of doing research to determine which stocks are good or bad, when their prices will be driven by the blind demand (or supply) based on cash flows of the passive investors?"​
       * See the hedge fund thing above. Now I understand!       * See the hedge fund thing above. Now I understand!
- 
- 
  
 <​blockquote>​For example, imagine that the active manager was information driven but cheap and free of human biases - like an algorithm that did analysis of a stock and valued in on just two factors: predicted dividend flow over the long term, and impact of passive investing flows on the price of the stock based on knowledge of the index and the overall pattern of cash flows in and out of the market. This should win over the passive guys in average - it uses 2 decent data points: one pertaining to actual income from the company and one pertaining to predictable market forces - while passive uses no data points. And the cost at the end of the day should be roughly similar.</​blockquote>​ <​blockquote>​For example, imagine that the active manager was information driven but cheap and free of human biases - like an algorithm that did analysis of a stock and valued in on just two factors: predicted dividend flow over the long term, and impact of passive investing flows on the price of the stock based on knowledge of the index and the overall pattern of cash flows in and out of the market. This should win over the passive guys in average - it uses 2 decent data points: one pertaining to actual income from the company and one pertaining to predictable market forces - while passive uses no data points. And the cost at the end of the day should be roughly similar.</​blockquote>​
 +
 +  * Another understanding is from "​Sharpening the Arithmetic of Active Management"​. Lots of standard stuff, but notes that forced index turnover costs of new shares, buybacks, etc, while they are reflected in the index and have large buffer zones to allow slow selling a buying of shares (they didn't mention this last point in the paper though, suspect it lessens the front-running),​ does lead the indexers to be front-run to some extent. ​
 ===== Stock Picking ===== ===== Stock Picking =====
  
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 ==== Poor / giving / selfishness ==== ==== Poor / giving / selfishness ====
 **WHO IS YOUR POLICER?** What task master individual will hold you accountable for not being perfect on your indecision? You are currently deciding to not decide... **WHO IS YOUR POLICER?** What task master individual will hold you accountable for not being perfect on your indecision? You are currently deciding to not decide...
-===== Early Retirement Bites! =====+===== Philosophy / Early Retirement Bites! =====
 https://​livingafi.com/​2016/​04/​01/​early-retirement-bites/​ https://​livingafi.com/​2016/​04/​01/​early-retirement-bites/​
 {{:​everyday:​pasted:​20170120-090256.png}} {{:​everyday:​pasted:​20170120-090256.png}}
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   * Really fun to be good already at something and produce useful stuff with it.   * Really fun to be good already at something and produce useful stuff with it.
  
 +=== Mark Rober ===
 +<​blockquote>​
 +Q: Would you ever quit your day job and devote all your time to bigger / longer YouTube projects? Is that even feasible?
 +
 +A: No. I'm actually pretty sucky at managing my time so if I had all day to work on projects I'm afraid I would mostly just hang out on TMZ.com. I find I'm much more productive when I'm constrained. Plus I like keeping the YouTube thing as a hobby and not as a primary thing for me psychologically. Coming up with ideas and creativity is such a delicate thing and I try to protect it like a little candle flame. Plus I really like my coworkers and our lunchtime conversations and the work we're doing. Financially,​ YouTube is more of a significant part of our family revenue but I just really love the balance we've got atm and chasing the money often seems to lead to inauthenticity imho.</​blockquote>​
 +  * Mark Rober, really creative engineer doing youtube videos. Kinda want to be like him, but not sure what aspect.
 +
 +=== Mr. Money Mustache ===
 +A nice excerpt of an idealized view of Financial Independence from Mr. Money Mustache. I reference it because I expect my "goal markers"​ to change over time and it feels weird to pin it down to something. However, I do know that not everyone has MMM's drive to do something productive every day but instead hates themselves when they drag around all day philosophizing of what they *should* be doing :) 
 +
 +//I also struggle with laziness and worry that I’m wasting my lucky place in the universe. My advice to people who are striving is to be sure to have a clear idea of what you want your life to be post-retirement. Have lists of things you want to do and accomplish because if you’re the type of person who has the discipline to retire early, you’re probably the type of person who won’t be happy as a couch potato.//
 +  * From MMM interview with Anita (lawyer). https://​www.mrmoneymustache.com/​2016/​01/​13/​an-interview-with-the-lawyer-who-retired-at-33/​
 +
 +
 +Nolan
 + 
 +Pete's excerpt:
 +
 +What if work were something that you did only when it worked for you? If you could go at it with gusto on certain days, or even certain seasons or years, but then shift to other things for a while when your priorities changed? You might spend most of your 20s burning up the corporate ladder or being the workhorse that keeps a startup company in the black. But then your 30s might be mostly consumed by bringing up young children, your 40s might see you starting more companies or reclaiming your youth as a touring rocker, and your 50s and 60s are yet to be charted. Now that I've met a large number people who have actually followed this path, I can see that financial independence isn't so much about freedom from work. It is more about freedom to do your best work, without money getting in the way.
 +
 +This is what I'm really describing when I talk about early retirement. It's not really retirement at all, but that's because I don't think anybody should truly retire in the old sense of the word — swearing off all forms of paid activity in favor of a dramatic increase in television watching and golf playing. Creation of new ideas, new enterprises,​ or new things is the biggest joy of being alive. Learning more about life, the world, and yourself and then trying to mix the ingredients together to the best of your ability is the happiest path you can take as a human. We're uniquely lucky to even have such an option available to us these days.
 +
 +So in my own case I started just with the goal of being a parent, but then ended up starting a house-building company to pursue my lifelong love of building things. Then I learned that the daily stress and schedule of big, multi-person projects was still too much for me at the time, so it evolved into a boutique carpentry operation that still does local projects to this day.  Other ventures have come and gone, but none of them were done because we needed the money. That is my definition of a modern retirement: the activities you pursue once you are done searching for money.
 +
 +Like an old-time homesteader,​ I enjoy learning new skills as the opportunity comes up, because I find it's more satisfying to learn something than to outsource it to others, even if you can afford it. Housekeeping and haircutting,​ cooking and gardening, but also welding and plumbing, framing and roofing, heating and cooling, auto repair and strength training, drum playing and electronic dance music composition and beer brewing are just a few of the things I have had the joy of working on in this first decade of retirement.
 +
 +Somewhere in there I also started a blog with the goal of reducing the rich world'​s resource consumption while suggesting that we could all have a lot more fun in the process. It was done mostly on a whim and only possible due to the free time available in the absence of a real job. But even this side gig has blown up into something much more fun than my original work career and is in fact what has brought you and me together at this very moment.
 ==== Financially independent / savings ==== ==== Financially independent / savings ====
   * Not having wife have stress   * Not having wife have stress
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   * There doesn'​t seem to be a big benefit to not electing quicksale but instead selling manually a few days later. There'​s definitely not a dip from quicksale, as 200K shares transacted every 5 minutes and sometimes it goes up sometimes it goes down. So not really related. Simplify.   * There doesn'​t seem to be a big benefit to not electing quicksale but instead selling manually a few days later. There'​s definitely not a dip from quicksale, as 200K shares transacted every 5 minutes and sometimes it goes up sometimes it goes down. So not really related. Simplify.
     * Historical INTC quicksale trades: {{ :​personal:​1489.xls |}}     * Historical INTC quicksale trades: {{ :​personal:​1489.xls |}}
 +    * **But it went down!** Toughen up buttercup. Still not sure though.
  
  
money.1559018699.txt.gz · Last modified: 2019/05/27 21:44 by admin