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money [2019/05/27 21:44]
admin
money [2019/06/25 09:51] (current)
admin [Market Timing]
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   * Can get data from the backtesting website. https://​www.portfoliovisualizer.com/​backtest-portfolio   * Can get data from the backtesting website. https://​www.portfoliovisualizer.com/​backtest-portfolio
 ===== Profiting in a <​known>​ bear market ===== ===== Profiting in a <​known>​ bear market =====
 +Easy option is to buy bonds. But...you can **bet** that the market will go down, which is more profitable.
 +  * Probably want to buy "​individual"​ treasury bonds? As 10-year treasuries coming out in 2009 aren't as profitable as 2006. A 10-year treasury mutual fund will continue to buy 10 year treasuries, even when it doesn'​t make sense anymore.
 +
 +
 There are mutual funds that just short the market. And make money when the S&P 500 goes down! Not sure who takes the other side of those trades, but ... yeah. Weird. There are mutual funds that just short the market. And make money when the S&P 500 goes down! Not sure who takes the other side of those trades, but ... yeah. Weird.
  
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 ===== Market Timing ===== ===== Market Timing =====
 +{{:​pasted:​20190623-204955.png?​500}}
 +
 +  * Yields are starting to tank for treasuries. Stock market is at an all time high. 10-2 yield curve hasn't inverted yet, but treasuries are tanking earlier than normal. But no Fed interest rate cuts yet or new unemployment. Kinda want to wait until dividend is paid out and then convert ... 80% to long term treasuries.
 +    * FRED chart of treasury .. yields? ​
 +    * [[https://​fred.stlouisfed.org/​graph/?​g=ofyT|{{:​pasted:​20190623-223601.png?​500}}]]
 +  * Greater Fool has a good [[https://​www.greaterfool.ca/​2019/​06/​22/​whos-right/​|article]]. Bond direction is disagreeing with stock direction. Feels that it's overblown, stocks will not crash. But not sure what will happen either. ​
 +  * Karsten has a good article in April, but he's talking about recession. Which, while it's the ultimate drawdown, isn't trying to capture the top either. https://​earlyretirementnow.com/​2019/​04/​03/​yield-curve-inversion-why-i-am-not-worried-yet/​
 +  * The "​pop"​ for treasuries doesn'​t occur until deep in recession, so not much penalty kinda for waiting.
 +  * 
 +
 +==== What to go into ====
 +^ Recession ^ Treasury maturities returns ^
 +| 74-76 | No difference |
 +| 80-83 | No difference |
 +| 90-92 | No difference |
 +| 00-02 | No difference |
 +| 08-10 | Some difference. Longer terms had nice price appreciation "​pop"​. \\ [[https://​www.portfoliovisualizer.com/​backtest-asset-class-allocation?​s=y&​mode=1&​timePeriod=2&​startYear=2007&​firstMonth=5&​endYear=2010&​lastMonth=12&​calendarAligned=true&​initialAmount=10000&​annualOperation=0&​annualAdjustment=0&​inflationAdjusted=true&​annualPercentage=0.0&​frequency=4&​rebalanceType=1&​absoluteDeviation=5.0&​relativeDeviation=25.0&​benchmark=-1&​benchmarkSymbol=FRORX&​sameFees=true&​asset1=InterTaxExempt&​allocation1_1=100&​asset2=IntermediateTreasury&​asset3=TreasuryNotes&​allocation3_2=100&​asset4=LongTreasury&​allocation4_3=100&​total1=100&​total2=100&​total3=100|{{:​pasted:​20190623-210203.png?​400}}]]|
 +  * Only in 2008 did long term treasuries pop. So...maybe go with tax-exempt municipal? But hard to sell. Treasury interest is state tax **exempt**.
 +
 +
 TOp 10 leading indicators: https://​en.wikipedia.org/​wiki/​Economic_indicator TOp 10 leading indicators: https://​en.wikipedia.org/​wiki/​Economic_indicator
  
money.1559018699.txt.gz · Last modified: 2019/05/27 21:44 by admin